At the start of his time in office, there was actually a chance that President Joe Biden could bring an old streak, one dating back to the time of Bill Clinton, to an end, of presidents losing control of Congress within the first two years of their term.
However, his abysmal polling numbers after a lengthy honeymoon period suggests that he’s going to lose just as many seats in the House as former President Donald Trump did back in 2018.
Public Opinion Strategies pollster Glen Bolger said it’s easy to track election outcomes to presidential polling, and with Biden’s sinking approval, Democrats are likely to lose about the 41 seats Trump lost, 34 more than the GOP needs to take control. And that’s before House district lines are redrawn to conform to new Census Bureau data.
“As baseball great Yogi Berra famously said, it’s deja vu all over again,” Bolger went on to say as he revealed his batch of new polling information.
It’s well known that Biden’s approval ratings have been tanking, especially since the bungled withdrawal of troops and diplomats from Afghanistan. But what Bolger has found is that the GOP has made “significant inroads” with all groups except younger voters, but these voters have a poor record of turning out on Election Day.
He went on to point out that this generic congressional ballot is actually tied for the first time in six years.
“Joe Biden’s overall disapproval rating and, more challenging for him, his strong disapproval ratings are right where Donald Trump’s were just prior to the November 2018 midterm elections, when the party in power lost the House and numerous gubernatorial seats,” he proclaimed. “I would hate to be in charge of candidate recruitment for Democrats because no Democrat in their right mind and a competitive seat would want to run in this political environment.”
“In terms of what to expect for the 2022 midterms, our polling of likely voters suggests that Republicans lead the Democrats in the generic vote for Congress 47%-46% with 7% undecided. This means likely voters are more willing to support a generic group of Republicans rather than a generic group of Democratic candidates for Congress,” Republican pollsters John McLaughlin and Jim McLaughlin went on to state.
“Meanwhile, as Democrats become deflated over Biden, Republicans are psyching up for a battle that is in part led by Trump. Pollster Scott Rasmussen said his numbers show that Trump voters are especially enthusiastic. He said 75% is ‘very motivated,'” the report continued.
If Trump ends up running in 2024, I think it’s pretty much a no-brainer he’ll end up being the presidential nominee, especially because of all the madness we’ve experienced in this country ever since he left office.
However, if for some odd reason he were not to win the nomination, the best second choice is Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. We’ve seen him time and time again stand up boldly for conservative values during the coronavirus pandemic. If anyone other than Trump can lead this country, it’s DeSantis.